Matthew Green：AI 冲击下公钥加密或失信任，概率约 15%
Quoting Matthew Green
AI 导读
密码学家 Matthew Green 称，有 1% 概率我们生活在公钥加密不可能实现的 Minicrypt 世界，15% 概率会实质性地对现有公钥加密算法失去信心。
摘要与补充说明
他指出，AI 制造意外发现的速度远超人类替换标准的速度，二者相差数个数量级，只有提前做好准备才能从这类冲击中恢复。
正文
9th October 2026
Everyone is very concerned about being respectable, so I’m going to be the goofball who raises worst-case possibilities. I think there is a 1% chance we live in Minicrypt, and a 15% chance we functionally lose confidence in our existing public-key encryption algorithms. [...]
The problem here is that the speed of AI producing surprises, and the speed of human beings replacing standards (even with the very best AI assistance) are just orders of magnitude different. You only recover from a surprise like this if you do the preparation in advance.
— Matthew Green, on Twitter. I looked it up and Minicrypt is Russell Impagliazzo’s hypothetical world in which public-key encryption is impossible.